Archive - Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time'

2025 Outlook: Targeting a Trifecta

Policy regime shift, Productivity boom, Sustainable Disinversion, 70/30 Asset Allocation

Dec 7, 2024 •

Four 4s, Transitory Goods Deflation, Collapsing Churn, No Healthy Broadening Yet

Jan 6, 2024 •

2024 Outlook: Put, Pause, Pivot

The Fed's full employment mandates slips away, and equities struggle before the pivot

Dec 2, 2023 •

Ripping off the Band-Aid

Strategic Policy Put, Tactically Short, Restructuring QT, Setback for Team Transitory, Curious Bull Steepening

Jan 13, 2024 •

March Cut Less Likely, Inflation as a Fiscal Limit, Unwinding Financial Repression, Retailer Disruption, Equal Weight S&P Relative Value

Jan 20, 2024

Made in America

Trade Policy is derailing the most important agenda item, reducing government spending, the only path to debt stabilization. A problem that was made in…

Apr 12 •

December Payrolls Preview

Payrolls Still Matter, Slack, Churn, Fiscal Spending & Wages, Necessary & Sufficient

Jan 3, 2024 •

Disinflation Resumption

Disinflation, not just despite, but perhaps because of tariffs, the FOMC is likely to fall further behind the curve, changing currency correlations…

Jun 14 •

The Trump Trade Shock

Trade Surplus Penalties, Clashing Over Commerce, Agenda Derailment Risk, Recession Watch, Buy When There's Blood in the Streets

Apr 5 •

Clean Up on the Treasury Desk

Higher real rates, but far from a crisis. The House made 1BBBA marginally better, but spending is still too high. The Fed is behind the curve, asset…

May 24 •

The Trump Treasuries Trade

First Arrow Skepticism, Rents Cooling, The Price Theory of Labor, The Reason to Keep Cutting

Dec 14, 2024 •

Tariff Inflation Mythology

Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary & fiscal phenomenon, not due to an import tax, the ominous outlook for the federal debt and deficits

May 17 •

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