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2026 Outlook: Duration Tightening
Run it Hot, Privatizing the Fed's Balance Sheet, Dollar Devaluation and the AI Boom
Dec 6
•
Barry C. Knapp
2
3
Putting Down the Regional Revolt
The Fed leadership strikes back, weak consumption, labor and price data, the effect of a steeper curve, DT begins
Dec 1
•
Barry C. Knapp
11:05
November 2025
Putting Down the Regional Revolt
The Fed leadership strikes back, weak consumption, labor and price data, the effect of a steeper curve, DT begins
Nov 29
•
Barry C. Knapp
7
2
Adverse Aggregate Demand Shock(s)
Tariffs reduce employment, the pandemic distorted the delayed employment report, the BLS and Fed might steal the Santa rally, reducing risk
Nov 24
•
Barry C. Knapp
12:16
Adverse Aggregate Demand Shock(s)
Tariffs reduce employment, the pandemic distorted the delayed employment report, the BLS and Fed might steal the Santa rally, reducing risk
Nov 22
•
Barry C. Knapp
4
4
2
Defiance
The Powell Fed resistance to supply side tax policy, the UST market rejects the regional revolt, Sam I Am and AI Credit, China's 'L' shaped economy
Nov 17
•
Barry C. Knapp
2
13:54
Defiance
The Powell Fed resistance to supply side tax policy, the UST market rejects the regional revolt, Sam I Am and AI Credit, China's 'L' shaped economy
Nov 15
•
Barry C. Knapp
8
Cyclical Bond Bull, Secular Bear
Fed's hawkish rate guidance and start to DT created the conditions for a growth scare pullback this week, 4% could easily turn to 10% if the Fed doesn't…
Nov 10
•
Barry C. Knapp
2
14:09
Cyclical Bond Bull, Secular Bear
Fed's hawkish rate guidance and start to DT created the conditions for a growth scare pullback this week, 4% could easily turn to 10% if the Fed doesn't…
Nov 8
•
Barry C. Knapp
5
2
Far From It
The FOMC's regional revolt, QT ends but SOMA duration runoff begins, the size of the balance sheet and bank regs, risk-off risks rising
Nov 3
•
Barry C. Knapp
15:59
Far From It
The FOMC's regional revolt, QT ends but SOMA duration runoff begins, the size of the balance sheet and bank regs, risk-off risks rising
Nov 1
•
Barry C. Knapp
3
1
October 2025
The Policy Mosaic End Game
Detoxing the labor market, fiscal inflation, the Fed's blind spot, uneven earnings growth, another FOMC step towards neutral, the end of QT
Oct 27
•
Barry C. Knapp
13:03
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