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June Payrolls: Supply Shock
Lower supply and continued weak demand, but probably not sufficiently soft enough for a July rate cut
7 hrs ago
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Barry C. Knapp
1
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Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time'
June Payrolls: Supply Shock
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June 2025
Not So Solid
The relentless rally, not so solid growth, Fed patience or obstinance, letting the dust settle, OBBBA, mercantilist currency policies
Jun 30
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Barry C. Knapp
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15:22
Not So Solid
The relentless rally, not so solid growth, Fed patience or obstinance, letting the dust settle, OBBBA, mercantilist currency policies
Jun 28
•
Barry C. Knapp
2
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Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time'
Not So Solid
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Transitory Purgatory
Still detoxing, softer consumption, another leg lower for housing, weak demand for labor, a sharp drop in core earnings growth and a Fed in transitory…
Jun 23
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Barry C. Knapp
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11:43
Transitory Purgatory
Still detoxing, softer consumption, another leg lower for housing, weak demand for labor, a sharp drop in core earnings growth and a Fed in transitory…
Jun 21
•
Barry C. Knapp
2
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Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time'
Transitory Purgatory
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Disinflation Resumption
Disinflation, not just despite, but perhaps because of tariffs, the FOMC is likely to fall further behind the curve, changing currency correlations…
Jun 16
•
Barry C. Knapp
6
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Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time'
Disinflation Resumption
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15:32
Disinflation Resumption
Disinflation, not just despite, but perhaps because of tariffs, the FOMC is likely to fall further behind the curve, changing currency correlations…
Jun 14
•
Barry C. Knapp
8
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Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time'
Disinflation Resumption
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Fiscal Food Fight
Tariffs, Immigration and Spending reduces the demand for, and supply of labor. Our capex recovery thesis is intact, but Fed resuming rate cuts are on…
Jun 9
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Barry C. Knapp
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12:53
Fiscal Food Fight
Tariffs, Immigration and Spending reduces the demand for, and supply of labor. Our capex recovery thesis is intact, but Fed resuming rate cuts are on…
Jun 7
•
Barry C. Knapp
4
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Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time'
Fiscal Food Fight
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May Employment: Narrative Changer?
Business confidence, data lags & mismeasurement, small business struggles, wages cooling, bad is probably bad, for now
Jun 4
•
Barry C. Knapp
2
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Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time'
May Employment: Narrative Changer?
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The Policy Mosaic
An unstable policy equilibrium, IEEPA and degrees of freedom, soft data hardens, hard data softens, setting Fannie and Freddie loose
Jun 2
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Barry C. Knapp
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12:15
May 2025
The Policy Mosaic
An unstable policy equilibrium, IEEPA and degrees of freedom, soft data hardens, hard data softens, setting Fannie and Freddie loose
May 31
•
Barry C. Knapp
9
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Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time'
The Policy Mosaic
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