Flawed Fed Frameworks

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Flawed Fed Frameworks

The fiscal theory, the hard data catches down to the soft data, excessive labor slack, the Fed is on track for a repeat of September '24, growth scare pullback likely

Barry C. Knapp

Aug 04, 2025

∙ Paid

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This is an audio summary of our August 2 note, Flawed Fed Frameworks

Figure 8: Adjusted employment growth, assuming an 80,000 per month overestimation of small business employment growth, is getting perilously close to zero. In the last 3 months it was probably negative.

Barry C. Knapp

Managing Partner

Director of Research

Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC

908-821…

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