Inflation Forecast Shortfall

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time'

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Inflation Forecast Shortfall

The yield curve signals screams ease, inflation is not near the Fed's forecast, the tariff tax effect on spending, China's deflationary vortex, small caps moving higher

Barry C. Knapp

Aug 18, 2025

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This is a summary of our August 16 note, Inflation Forecast Shortfall

*Figure 2: The 6-month rates of CPI and the components are clearly in the disinflationary direction.*

Barry C. Knapp

Managing Partner

Director of Research

Ironsides Macroeconomics LLC

908-821-7584

bcknapp@ironsidesmacro.com

https://www.linkedin.com/in/barry-c-knapp/

@barryknapp

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Inflation Forecast Shortfall

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