The Battle over the Budget

Ironsides Macroeconomics 'It's Never Different This Time'

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The Battle over the Budget

As trade policy pessimism fades, the focus shifts to Congress and the Reconciliation Bill, and the sausage making process is particularly messy.

Barry C. Knapp

May 12, 2025

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This audio summarizes our May 10 note, The Battle over the Budget

Figure 6: Super core services CPI (non-housing) has been cooling since October ‘24, over the last two years it has been weakest in 2Q. The comps could stabilize the annualized rate, but if super core and housing inflation are falling while goods prices firm due to tariffs, and fiscal polic…

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