March Employment Preview

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March Employment Preview

Unstable Full Employment, Weak Demand, Low Churn, Take the Under on Wages and Employment and the over on Unemployment

Barry C. Knapp

Apr 02, 2025

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This video summarizes our April 1 note, March Employment Preview

Figure 1: The March ADP report was stronger than we expected, particularly small business employment (+52,000) and professional & business services (+57,000), though their measure of wage growth cooled modestly. The Treasury market ignored the report.

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