When the Chaos Hit the Fan
Our 4Q19 outlook, the labor market looks tight, but a recession is not imminent
We have committed the majority of our recent notes to analyzing the impact of trade policy on the economy and markets. The ISM surveys left little doubt that trade policy chaos is the primary cause for the manufacturing contraction. In this week’s note, we are going to focus on the outlook for markets for the balance of 2019, assuming our political ca…