Seeing is Believing

The market is not wrong, workers aren't discouraged, laggard banks and long-run policy risks

We would like to begin this week with an subtle, but important definition of the business cycle. When measuring economic activity, we follow convention and measure peak to peak. In other words, forget the recession/depression/contraction or shape of the recovery debate; we are in the next business cycle. If you focus on the definition of a cycle, what y…