Command and Control
A global growth scare, failed Chinese pandemic policy, earnings and policy update
A Global, not US, Growth Scare
Back in the summer of 2019 the recession curve (10-Year Treasury less 3-Month Bill yield) inverted, the Fed cut rates in what they characterized as a mid-cycle adjustment and the market narrative was all about US recession risk. We were adamant that the inverted curve was not forecasting a US recession, but was instead disc…